A glimpse of how 'full' COVID19 vaccination will be..

After a year-ish of Coronavirus outbreak, we all know that COVID19 will not end or disappear, but it'll be just like other diseases (think Chicken-pox, Shingles, Influenza A) where vaccine provides a shield or protection to the majority of the population. Some of the virus like small pox or measles have been rare in community after 30-50 years of vaccination programme. Hence, it's childish for us to think that COVID19 is going to go away just like that after the vaccine is being rolled out.

One of the countries which I admire for their technology advancement and survival despite going through never-ending wars - Israel, which Malaysia does not have diplomatic ties with is currently the leader in COVID19 vaccination. As of today (7th Feb 2021), at least 60% of their targeted population have received at least 1 dose of vaccine. I must state that I am not a supporter of Israel but from the viewpoint of a secular and science person, they did very well in many aspects. In this pandemic, the disease outbreak control was not that spectacular but hats off to their vaccination programme. By May 2021, all of their eligible population will be vaccinated.

A chart of current COVID-19 vaccination status (per 100 people or percentage if you divide by 100)

 

To know what it will be like post COVID19 vaccination, we will take a glimpse into Israel's early data (please take note that both Modena and Pfizer mRNA's vaccine which is deemed more superior and newer technology requires 2 doses of vaccine, with the vaccination date 14-21 days apart. It is also mentioned that full protection or benefit should be realized only after a month after the first dose and if you follow up with the 2nd dose). Even with the rapid Israel vaccination, at the end of 1st week of Feb 2021, we know that barely 1/3 of Israel's population fall into the category. However, they are starting to see some benefits like drop in severe illness, hospitalizations, new cases and mortality. 

Remember in November, I posted an article on how will COVID19 end? With the Israel roll out of the vaccine to its mass population, it's time for us to look out for:
1. Transmissivity of COVID19 post vaccination. By March or April we should see Israel's COVID19 cases drop at least two-third (2/3). 
2. Mortality rate of COVID19 - vaccines 'teach' our body to learn how to fight Coronavirus. Hence, after vaccination, we should see mortality rate of COVID19 to be less than half of what it is in Israel today.
3. Benchmark number of cases vs Israel's mobility (available in Google) . We should see the cases coming down slowly and mobility of Israel's population increases.

Why Israel's data is important?
1. It is the first country in the world to have completed its full COVID19 vaccination. 
2. We can see the change of human behaviour post vaccination. It's not just about humans moving around but the confidence of the vaccinated population going around without catching another bout of COVID19.
3. Recovery of economy and local travel which is essential in rebuilding local economies should be seen. Tourism which is the worse-hit sector should see some improvements. 

Global stocks recovery (especially on the recovery stocks) are highly dependent on the successful roll out of COVID19 vaccine. While we might not have herd immunity for years to come but the least vaccine can do (hopefully) is to reduce the symptoms if we are unlucky and contract it. The most likely event is we will still get COVID19 and its newer variants but our body will know how to 'deal with it' earlier and prevent us into entering more critical stage of pneumonia which not only require life support and lots of medical resources but permanent damage to the lungs or even death.

While I am deeply disappointed with Malaysia's vaccine plan, I do hope that we, the normal ordinary Malaysians will be able to pay and get our hands on good vaccine. After all, our life matters and nothing is worth more than that.

Watch the Interview with Grantham

 

My thoughts after watching Bloomberg's interview with Grantham.

1. He is very thoughtful, straight-forward and managed to summarize what is the market right now.
2. His quote of "High growth stocks is valued higher and normally is based on DCF model or anticipated dividend in future. However, high growth stocks can be overvalued. And if it's overvalued, it's overvalued anyway."
3. He rightly summarizes that "P/B is low because it's sitting on poor quality asset, Dividend Yield is high because it's waiting for a dividend cuts, P/E is low because of poor future earnings visibility". 
4. He sees that currently lower growth stocks might overperform the high growth stocks not because of high growth stocks is not growing but it's being overvalued at current prices. Lower growth stocks is trading at way cheaper valuations and has the potential to rise in terms of valuation more (in percentage) than overvalued high growth stocks.

I would encourage you to watch the interview as it offers different viewpoints and watch how Jeremy Grantham argues his points. I find it very impressive and downright truthful.