Showing posts with label #covid19. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #covid19. Show all posts

A glimpse of how 'full' COVID19 vaccination will be..

After a year-ish of Coronavirus outbreak, we all know that COVID19 will not end or disappear, but it'll be just like other diseases (think Chicken-pox, Shingles, Influenza A) where vaccine provides a shield or protection to the majority of the population. Some of the virus like small pox or measles have been rare in community after 30-50 years of vaccination programme. Hence, it's childish for us to think that COVID19 is going to go away just like that after the vaccine is being rolled out.

One of the countries which I admire for their technology advancement and survival despite going through never-ending wars - Israel, which Malaysia does not have diplomatic ties with is currently the leader in COVID19 vaccination. As of today (7th Feb 2021), at least 60% of their targeted population have received at least 1 dose of vaccine. I must state that I am not a supporter of Israel but from the viewpoint of a secular and science person, they did very well in many aspects. In this pandemic, the disease outbreak control was not that spectacular but hats off to their vaccination programme. By May 2021, all of their eligible population will be vaccinated.

A chart of current COVID-19 vaccination status (per 100 people or percentage if you divide by 100)

 

To know what it will be like post COVID19 vaccination, we will take a glimpse into Israel's early data (please take note that both Modena and Pfizer mRNA's vaccine which is deemed more superior and newer technology requires 2 doses of vaccine, with the vaccination date 14-21 days apart. It is also mentioned that full protection or benefit should be realized only after a month after the first dose and if you follow up with the 2nd dose). Even with the rapid Israel vaccination, at the end of 1st week of Feb 2021, we know that barely 1/3 of Israel's population fall into the category. However, they are starting to see some benefits like drop in severe illness, hospitalizations, new cases and mortality. 




Remember in November, I posted an article on how will COVID19 end? With the Israel roll out of the vaccine to its mass population, it's time for us to look out for:
1. Transmissivity of COVID19 post vaccination. By March or April we should see Israel's COVID19 cases drop at least two-third (2/3). 
2. Mortality rate of COVID19 - vaccines 'teach' our body to learn how to fight Coronavirus. Hence, after vaccination, we should see mortality rate of COVID19 to be less than half of what it is in Israel today.
3. Benchmark number of cases vs Israel's mobility (available in Google) . We should see the cases coming down slowly and mobility of Israel's population increases.

Why Israel's data is important?
1. It is the first country in the world to have completed its full COVID19 vaccination. 
2. We can see the change of human behaviour post vaccination. It's not just about humans moving around but the confidence of the vaccinated population going around without catching another bout of COVID19.
3. Recovery of economy and local travel which is essential in rebuilding local economies should be seen. Tourism which is the worse-hit sector should see some improvements. 

Global stocks recovery (especially on the recovery stocks) are highly dependent on the successful roll out of COVID19 vaccine. While we might not have herd immunity for years to come but the least vaccine can do (hopefully) is to reduce the symptoms if we are unlucky and contract it. The most likely event is we will still get COVID19 and its newer variants but our body will know how to 'deal with it' earlier and prevent us into entering more critical stage of pneumonia which not only require life support and lots of medical resources but permanent damage to the lungs or even death.

While I am deeply disappointed with Malaysia's vaccine plan, I do hope that we, the normal ordinary Malaysians will be able to pay and get our hands on good vaccine. After all, our life matters and nothing is worth more than that.


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How will COVID19 Ends?

The biggest question is now in everyone's mind - Will COVID19 ever end?

A fair answer to it will be - No! It will not really end but it'll evolved into something like H1N1 (hopefully!) and we can all go out again, safely!

The below are very likely scenarios that will happen over the next few years:

1. COVID19 will continue to mutate and evolve into a much more weakened virus (think H1N1 that was a real killer with morbidity rate of >10%). It currently has 1-2% mortality date and hopefully this number will drop further more. Viruses typically wants to 'live' forever, and it's the instinct of living things for their 'continuity on earth'

2. A series of vaccine that is successful in wiping out the COVID19 threat, where >70% of the human population is immunized against COVID19 hence achieving Herd Immunity. Think about this, you can still contract the virus but your body already know how to 'fight it off' without any further medication. There will definitely be some amount of population who will continue to be susceptible to the illness that is brought about by COVID19 virus. Hopefully the amount will be small and fatality rate will be very very low. 

3. Effective treatment plan - this will ensure that if anyone of us is 'unlucky' and caught the virus, we have a cure to it. This is similar to having 'Penicillin' which during the WW2 managed to treat a lot of infections. Without Penicillin antibiotics millions will be dead and I am probably one of the candidate who ends up early at the graveyard considering my childhood episodes with asthma and lungs infections triggered by allergies. Read: AstraZeneca's COVID cocktail. Donald Trump had contracted COVID and had some worrying symptoms but he was saved due to the cocktail treatment. If you're wondering what is a cocktail, it is simply a mixture of different drugs or even antibodies from recovered patients, all working together to reduce human body's over-reaction to COVID19 infections and in the mean time fight against them. 

Am I optimistic that either one of these above will materialize? I would say the reality might be a combination of 3 above scenarios. But the upside to mankind is that we will take a better care of ourselves, for example more hand washing, mask wearing and more sanitization of common areas. 

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How would the post-COVID19 world looks like?

 It struck my mind that now we have vaccines entering into Phase 3 of the trials, are we out of the woods yet? I chose to believe 'no' as according to WHO and Mayo Clinic, in order for us to go back to the 'world like before' we will need to have 'herd immunity' for COVID19. This probably means that we must have vaccines sufficient for about 70% of the population! And we know that despite the successes of Modena, Pfizer and other companies with their vaccine trials, they need massive production facilities for that to happen. Johnson and Johnson is a strong contender in this as they have the manufacturing capabilities despite their vaccine development is a stage behind the rest. 

Anyway, back to our topic of how would Post-COVID19 world looks like? My views are as below

1. The world is going to travel less (especially for less essential travels). People are going to weigh between the cost, risk and benefits of travel before they do so.

2. Airlines will be a little more 'niche'. Airlines who offers the product that customers wants (i.e. for short haul might be just minimal service and lower fares while long haul flight customers will look for more service) will probably stand a chance to emerge. None of them will be stronger as this pandemic has hit their finances too deeply.

3. Teleconference, telephones, whatsapp calls, Zoom meetings etc will replace 30-50% of face-to-face meetings. People will get so used to using technology to get their views across and work done than moving their bodies to a meeting venue. 

4. Public transport usage will stay low for a few years. People now appreciate their private space (virus free!) and got used to the time and definitely the vehicles they bought during the COVID19 season. 

5. Online purchases will remain high, expected not to grow double-digit like during COVID19 time. Items that people get used to, more people will order online and wait for it to be delivered. 

6. Chilling out and spending time outside (their residential place) might be reduced (I suspect not too much but there will be a reduction) as more people are used to staying at home and enjoying different hobbies. The shift in behaviour is sometimes hard to alter back. All governments in the world tell people to go out less in 2020. 

7. More takeaways, home cooking and ready to eat food. The trend of takeaways, deliveries will sustain while frozen and other ready to eat food may sell better. This could mean that restaurants' business may continue to be cannibalized. 

8. Strong brands will weather the storm and turn out stronger (as their competitors got wiped out). During this pandemic, it's not strange to see people queueing to enter Uniqlo, Nike, Sketchers etc but the less popular stores are facing grave business situation. They might not survive this COVID storm. 

9. Companies will get used to allowing employees to work from home. Working from home has become a norm and companies now have experienced them extensively. Some more older fashioned managers are still in doubt but definitely it's now more acceptable for a whole lot of companies. The accompanying thoughts will be performance will be measured by deliverables not time spent in office (this should be the case anyway!). 

10. People will appreciate and want a larger place. Prior to COVID19, many people in cities lived in small apartments with only 2 or 3 rooms but post COVID19, there might be a urge for people to move to a bigger place. Coupled with the Working From Home arrangements/culture, this will definitely drive the demand of landed or bigger sized properties. 

11. Internet access will be considered as "Utilities" just like water and electricity. COVID19 has driven the world to be more connected (via internet).

12. Human will spend less time together physically. The impact of it is mostly negative and we shall see the outcome.

Hopefully, precaution and disease prevention will continue to stay in the minds of mankind for a long long time. The world got more and more congested and it's part of the eco-system to 'self balance' itself. 



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How Do People Catch COVID?

Since February, the whole world has been staring at the statistics on the television wondering when COVID will finally come to an end? For me, I don’t think it’ll ever will. Think Influenza virus and there are plenty of mysterious deaths and illnesses linked to it. The only difference is we have influenza vaccine (which needs to be updated yearly with the new strains). 

Here is an interesting article about how people catch COVID in Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-21/how-the-novel-coronavirus-can-maybe-infect-you-quicktake


Watch the below video to see more



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A glimpse of how 'full' COVID19 vaccination will be..

After a year-ish of Coronavirus outbreak, we all know that COVID19 will not end or disappear, but it'll be just like other diseases (thi...