It struck my mind that now we have vaccines entering into Phase 3 of the trials, are we out of the woods yet? I chose to believe 'no' as according to WHO and Mayo Clinic, in order for us to go back to the 'world like before' we will need to have 'herd immunity' for COVID19. This probably means that we must have vaccines sufficient for about 70% of the population! And we know that despite the successes of Modena, Pfizer and other companies with their vaccine trials, they need massive production facilities for that to happen. Johnson and Johnson is a strong contender in this as they have the manufacturing capabilities despite their vaccine development is a stage behind the rest.
Anyway, back to our topic of how would Post-COVID19 world looks like? My views are as below
1. The world is going to travel less (especially for less essential travels). People are going to weigh between the cost, risk and benefits of travel before they do so.
2. Airlines will be a little more 'niche'. Airlines who offers the product that customers wants (i.e. for short haul might be just minimal service and lower fares while long haul flight customers will look for more service) will probably stand a chance to emerge. None of them will be stronger as this pandemic has hit their finances too deeply.
3. Teleconference, telephones, whatsapp calls, Zoom meetings etc will replace 30-50% of face-to-face meetings. People will get so used to using technology to get their views across and work done than moving their bodies to a meeting venue.
4. Public transport usage will stay low for a few years. People now appreciate their private space (virus free!) and got used to the time and definitely the vehicles they bought during the COVID19 season.
5. Online purchases will remain high, expected not to grow double-digit like during COVID19 time. Items that people get used to, more people will order online and wait for it to be delivered.
6. Chilling out and spending time outside (their residential place) might be reduced (I suspect not too much but there will be a reduction) as more people are used to staying at home and enjoying different hobbies. The shift in behaviour is sometimes hard to alter back. All governments in the world tell people to go out less in 2020.
7. More takeaways, home cooking and ready to eat food. The trend of takeaways, deliveries will sustain while frozen and other ready to eat food may sell better. This could mean that restaurants' business may continue to be cannibalized.
8. Strong brands will weather the storm and turn out stronger (as their competitors got wiped out). During this pandemic, it's not strange to see people queueing to enter Uniqlo, Nike, Sketchers etc but the less popular stores are facing grave business situation. They might not survive this COVID storm.
9. Companies will get used to allowing employees to work from home. Working from home has become a norm and companies now have experienced them extensively. Some more older fashioned managers are still in doubt but definitely it's now more acceptable for a whole lot of companies. The accompanying thoughts will be performance will be measured by deliverables not time spent in office (this should be the case anyway!).
10. People will appreciate and want a larger place. Prior to COVID19, many people in cities lived in small apartments with only 2 or 3 rooms but post COVID19, there might be a urge for people to move to a bigger place. Coupled with the Working From Home arrangements/culture, this will definitely drive the demand of landed or bigger sized properties.
11. Internet access will be considered as "Utilities" just like water and electricity. COVID19 has driven the world to be more connected (via internet).
12. Human will spend less time together physically. The impact of it is mostly negative and we shall see the outcome.
Hopefully, precaution and disease prevention will continue to stay in the minds of mankind for a long long time. The world got more and more congested and it's part of the eco-system to 'self balance' itself.
